Heat pump performance: rb&m’s new analysis of data from 1700 heat pump installations
Our analysis of:
1431 ASHPs
286 GSHPs
Our research funded by the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), the Ground Source Heat Pump Association (GSHPA) and the Renewable Energy Consumer Code (RECC).
New research carried out by rb&m provides further insight into the system performance of 1700 air and ground source heat pumps subject to strict monitoring by Ofgem under the Renewable Heat Incentive regulations.
The independent research funded by DESNZ, the GSHPA and RECC and published today by the GSHPA shows:
median and mean SPFs;
SPFs for installations carried in specific years from 2017 to 2022; and
results broken down by GB country and English region.
The report builds on a similar research carried out by rb&m’s Colin Meek in 2019 using a previous dataset provided by Ofgem.
The new research, with a much larger dataset, compares the in-situ efficiencies calculated versus the ‘as designed’ performance using the installer-provided SCOP forecasts included in the dataset. All installations in the analysis were carried out after important changes were made to the MCS standard for heat pumps (MIS3005) in October 2017. The results are remarkably consistent with the full results from the Energy Systems Catapult (ESC) Electrification of Heat Demonstration Project also published today. The ESC Insights from Heat Pump Performance Data report refers directly to rb&m’s findings and the correlation between both studies.
The report was researched and written by rb&m Managing Partner Colin Meek with invaluable support from Excel Specialist Jamie Newman. The report was edited by rb&m Managing Partner Sue Bloomfield.
Whilst the results provide good evidence that a large proportion of heat pumps are performing well, they also confirm that - when used to predict heat pump system efficiency - the SCOP metric tends to over-estimate performance.
The research does show that the average GSHP SPF has improved significantly since 2017 from just over 3.0 to 3.31 in 2022 and 67% of all GSHPs and nearly 30% of all ASHPs performed at SPF 3.0 or above. Exactly one third of GSHPs and 8% of ASHPs were performing at SPF 3.5 or above. However, the positive results are tempered by findings showing that a proportion of installations – ASHPs in particular – are performing with low or very low SPFs.
Overall, consumption and generation data from 1400 ASHP and nearly 300 GSHP installations subject to ‘Metering for Payment’ rules was analysed. The research was carried out by rb&m in March and April 2024. Download our full report here .